【推荐理由】本文探究了语言模型提供了一种强大的新方法来研究媒体效应，在补充民意调查和预测公众舆论方面具有实际应用。
Language models trained on media diets can predict public opinion
Eric Chu, Jacob Andreas, Stephen Ansolabehere, Deb Roy
【论文链接】https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.16779.pdf
【摘要】公众意见反映并塑造了社会行为，但传统的基于调查的测量工具是有限的。本文引入了一种新的方法来探测媒体饮食模型–适应于在线新闻、电视广播或广播节目内容的语言模型–可以模仿消费了一组媒体的子人群的意见。为了验证这种方法，作者将美国全国性的关于COVID-19和消费者信心的代表性调查中所表达的意见作为基础真理。研究表明，这种方法（1）可以预测在调查反应分布中发现的人类判断，并对措辞和媒体接触渠道具有鲁棒性；（2）对更密切关注媒体的人进行建模更准确；（3）与关于哪些类型的意见受媒体消费影响的文献一致。探测语言模型为调查媒体效应提供了一个强大的新方法，在补充民意调查和预测民意方面有实际应用，并表明需要进一步研究神经语言模型可以预测人类反应的惊人的保真度。
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