主题简介：对未来事件的预测（forecasting）是人类社会决策的重要一环。我们建造了一个基于语言模型（LM）的自动的预测系统，其水平接近人类预测者的聚合（human aggregates），并在某些情形下，超过后者。报告中，我会探讨这份工作的初衷，方法，结果，以及诸多未来方向。论文由 UC Berkeley 的 Danny Halawi, Yueh-Han Chen 和 Jacob Steinhardt 合作完成，论文地址：https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563。报告嘉宾：
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